Wider South East Q3 2022
House price growth slowed in the South East in Q3, but home values in some areas are still registering low double-digit growth year-on-year.
At a local level, London boroughs and some high value commuter areas are recording weaker growth, but there is limited evidence of any price falls yet. Rental growth across the South remains very strong.
South East sales market
The pace of house price growth across the wider South East declined in Q3. For example, the rate of growth for East Anglia slowed from +14.2% in Q2 to +11.2% in Q3, according to the latest Nationwide index, shown in Table 1. This mirrored the performance of the quarterly UK index. Figure 1, below, that shows the trend back to 2007 – the combined wider SE measure continued to fall back slightly from its Q1 peak.
Table 1 – regional house prices, Q3 2022
| Average value | Annual change | |
|---|---|---|
| East Anglia | £289,000 | +11.2% |
| Outer South East | £353,000 | +10.4% |
| Outer Met | £436,000 | +8.3% |
| London | £535,000 | +6.7% |
| UK | £273,000 | +10.3% |
Figure 1 – house price growth: wider SE, London and national
Source: Nationwide (Wider SE represented by average of ‘Outer Met’, ‘Outer SE’ and ‘East Anglia’ areas). Note: Quarterly regional series uses different UK figure to main monthly index
The ratio of London home values relative to those in the wider South East fell in Q3, reaching 1.49. This is the first time the ratio has been less than 1.5 since 2012, reflecting the continued outperformance of SE prices compared to those in the capital. The full data series is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 – ratio of London to wider South East values
Source: Nationwide (Wider SE represented by average of ‘Outer Met’, ‘Outer SE’ and ‘East Anglia’ areas)
The map below shows annual house price growth at local level across London and the wider South East. Some 92 of the 109 districts outside London show more than 10% annual growth in prices, up from 80 three months ago. Thanet in Kent recorded the highest rate of annual growth at 21.4%, followed by Great Yarmouth and Fenland, all of which have significantly lower average values than their region.
The lowest annual growth of 6.9% was recorded in Stevenage.
Of the 33 London boroughs, only six recorded growth over 10% with five registering growth of less than 5%, including two boroughs where prices fell in Q3 (City of London and Camden).
Figure 3 – local house price growth, August 2022
Source: Land Registry, 3-month smoothed data
South East rental market
Figure 4 shows rental growth data at regional and national level from the ONS. This is based on all rents paid, so is slow to respond to changes in market conditions. The rate of annual rental growth increased nationally and in all southern regions in Q3. The East of England continued to see the fastest growth on this measure, with an annual growth rate of +4.1% in September, with the South East at +3.4% now in line with the national average. Rental growth in London increased more strongly, from a lower base, to +2.8%, closing the gap to the other regions.
Figure 4 – rental growth: Southern regions, London and national
Source: ONS Index of Private Housing Rental Prices
Analysis based on new lettings agreed shows significantly higher levels of rental growth than the ONS indices, with London seeing the largest rises. The pace of growth in rents for new lets remained very high across all southern regions in Q3 based on both Homelet’s September index and Rightmove’s latest data.
Table 2 – regional rental data, Q3 2022
| Average rent* | Annual change Q3 | Previous (Q2 22) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homelet | South East | £1,237 | +8.6% | +7.7% |
| East of England | £1,099 | +7.6% | +6.6% | |
| London | £1,945 | +11.0% | +14.9% | |
| Rightmove | South East | £1,655 | +11.2% | +12.1% |
| East of England | £1,408 | +11.0% | +11.0% | |
| London | £2,343 | +16.1% | +15.8% |
