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Commercial Quarterly Examiner – retail market market update Q4 2024

The other side of the growth of occupier and investment demand for industrial and logistics property has been a long drawn-out decline of the physical retail space.

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Commercial Quarterly Examiner – industrial market update Q4 2024

In the space of ten years, the representation of the industrial sector within the UK’s All Property institutional commercial real estate market has doubled.

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Commercial Quarterly Examiner – office market update Q4 2024

Office markets across the UK are being shaped by working from home and the push for net zero.

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Commercial market update Winter 2024

Investment activity picks up as commercial property turns the corner, but the divergence within the office market is becoming more entrenched.

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Office market update Winter 2024

In short: Investment activity starts to rise from a low base, as prime office market gains more momentum. However, demand for secondary and tertiary office space is still low, pushing up vacancy rates across the sector.

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Retail market update Winter 2024

In short: The recovery in the retail sector has paused, as more challenging economic and financial conditions for households take their toll on this market.

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Industrial market update Winter 2024

In short: Capital growth is gaining momentum amid resilient rental growth and stable yields. Increased supply is pushing up vacancy rates, and this may continue into next year, but demand is still strong for well positioned buildings with good ESG credentials, especially as companies look to ensure their supply chains meet net-zero criteria.

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Commercial market update Autumn 2024

The economy is so far providing a tailwind for the new government. Inflation has fallen, and economic growth has been more robust than expected. The early rate cut at the start of August was a close call, but it has provided a fillip to confidence across the board.

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Office market update Autumn 2024

The structural change in the office market is only becoming more entrenched. There’s a continued flight to quality and strong appetite for sustainable best-in-class office space while tenant demand for secondary or tertiary space is in the doldrums.

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Industrial market update Autumn 2024

Logistics and standard industrial continue to outperform compared to the rest of the commercial property market, although performance and investment levels have eased over the last 12-18 months.

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Retail market update Autumn 2024

The momentum that was building in the sector in late 2023 has stalled in H1, thanks to rising business costs. But the wider landscape is improving – retail sales are edging up, and footfall is also improving across all sectors.

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Commercial market update Spring 2024

It’s now widely accepted that interest rates have peaked, the key question now is when will the central bank start to cut rates, and how low will they go in the coming year.

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Office market update Spring 2024

The structural change in the office market is ongoing, with strong appetite for best-in-class office space which meets high net-zero requirements and insipid demand for secondary or tertiary space. The investment market was quiet overall in 2023, although some notable deals were struck where pricing was competitive.

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Retail market update Spring 2024

Take-up rose towards the end of 2023, but overall vacancy rates are flattered by the lack of supply in the market. The bright spot for landlords is luxury retail and retail parks, where consumer demand is still relatively stronger.

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Industrial market update Spring 2024

Vacancy rates creep up and rents ease. The recalibration of the Industrial market after the pandemic uplift continues, but overall, the sector continues to outperform compared to other asset classes.

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Economic update Spring 2024

The economy grew more than expected in November, according to the latest data from the ONS, but there is still a risk that the UK could dip into recession.

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Commercial market update Winter 2023

The Bank of England’s decision to keep the base rate on hold at 5.25% for the second consecutive time in November has raised the prospect that interest rates are at their peak.

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Office market update Winter 2023

Flight to quality continues. There has never been such a distinct divergence between prime and secondary property, and this is still being driven by companies adjusting to changing working patterns as well as a desire to meet higher net-zero targets.

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Industrial market update Winter 2023

Slowing rental growth. Robust occupational market conditions amid tight supply are helping to maintain a continued confidence after significant repricing in the sector.

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Retail market update Winter 2023

Slowing market. Prime high street assets are among the best performing within retail – these assets have stabilised and there is opportunity for future rental growth where values have been rebased.

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Commercial market update Autumn 2023

Will they? Won’t they? This is the key question around whether the UK’s base rate will exceed 5.75%. There have been enough mixed messages to muddy the waters – inflation data released in June showed that inflation was stuck at 8.7% in May, which prompted forecasts that the base rate would peak at 6.5% from the current rate of 5.25%.

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Office market update Autumn 2023

UK office vacancy rate continues to climb. Weak demand and strong supply are resulting in an ever-rising vacancy rate for offices across the UK, which has hit 7.7%, up from less than 5% before the pandemic.

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Retail market update Autumn 2023

The retail environment remains challenging. The rising cost of living, and recent disappointing weather have led to a further tick down in overall sales.

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Industrial market update Autumn 2023

Vacancy rate remains low. Net absorption of industrial space dipped into negative territory in Q2 2023 for the first time in 11 years as take up fell back to levels last seen before the pandemic.

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UK economic update Autumn 2023

The key economic move over the last few months was the Bank of England’s decision not to raise interest rates in September.

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UK economic outlook Q3 2023

The economy settled down relatively quickly from the shock of the mini-budget in September last year and the resulting spike in gilt rates and mortgage rates.

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Commercial market update Q2 2023

The UK’s economic mood music has been more upbeat so far this year than many would have anticipated in the wake of the mini-budget last year. This culminated in the IMF, traditionally circumspect about the UK’s economic outlook, confirming in late May that the country would not enter recession this year, contrary to its earlier forecasts.

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Office market update Q2 2023

Office take-up gained some momentum towards the end of Q1 as employees continue to return to the workplace in greater numbers. But overall demand for office space remains muted compared to historical norms.

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Retail market update Q2 2023

Retail sales fell back in May after rising slightly in April, according to a survey from the CBI, but the overall outlook is slightly more upbeat than at the beginning of the year as consumer confidence continues to climb and the prospect of lower energy bills is factored in.

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Industrial market update Q2 2023

Average industrial property yields, according to MSCI, which softened sharply last year remained largely unchanged in Q1 2023, as the market absorbed the new economic landscape in the UK.

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UK economic outlook Q2 2023

Higher than expected inflation dampens expectations for UK economy. Inflation data was higher than expected in May, which has weighed on business confidence, and has pushed interest rate expectations, and the cost of borrowing, higher.

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Commercial market update Q1 2023

The bond vs property yield spread ticked up in Q4 but remains nearly the narrowest in a decade.

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Retail market update Q1 2023

Retail sales ticked up slightly in January but are still down on a three-monthly basis from the post-pandemic highs in the summer of 2021.

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Industrial market update Q1 2023

The strong performance in this sector over the last few years mean that the upheaval caused by rising interest rates and the September’s mini-budget, which caused a surge in gilt yields, was more pronounced than other sectors.

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Office market update Q1 2023

UK office vacancy rate rises, but masks a two-tier market.

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UK economic outlook Q1 2023

The economic outlook for the UK is challenging this year, but there is growing consensus that the downturn will not be as long as previously expected.

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Commercial market update Q3 2022

Bond yields have settled down, but property yields are exposed to some repricing as investors take into account higher borrowing costs.

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Industrial market update Q3 2022

Rents and capital values surged this year in response to high levels of demand for occupiers and investors alike.

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Office market update Q3 2022

The central theme in this sector is the flight to quality by investors and occupiers alike.

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Retail market update Q3 2022

This sector was hit hardest by Covid and the cost-of-living led recession will likely deliver another blow.

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Commercial market update Q2 2022

Economy is slowing and, early suggestions that we may avoid recession have been swept aside by the Bank of England following on from their August meeting.

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Industrial market update Q1 2022

The rent rise continues: If the classical economists’ definition of inflation being ‘too much money chasing too few goods’ needed a perfect illustration that the industrial sector is it.

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Office market update Q1 2022

Historically there has been a very strong link between employment growth and increased demand for office space. The employment market is one part of the economy that is weathering the current storm well.

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Retail market update Q1 2022

with so many bad news headlines over the cost-of-living crisis and geopolitical uncertainty, it is no surprise that consumer confidence has faltered and dramatically so.

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Commercial market update Q1 2022

The commercial real estate sector has been through an extraordinary year, outperforming other asset classes with total returns of 23.9% over the past 12 months.

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Commercial market update Q4 2021

It has been a long pandemic, and Omicron provided a sharp reminder that it might not be over quite yet. Despite this, there are signs of recovery in all sectors.

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Industrial market update Q4 2021

Rental growth continues to rise, hitting 7.2% a year in Q4 2021. Industrial space under construction is at the highest level ever recorded.

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Office market update Q4 2021

Large year-end London office deals show confidence in the outlook, but TfL passenger volumes took another hit from Omicron in December.

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Retail market update Q4 2021

Slide in retail rents halts, but inflation and interest rates pose a threat as cost-of-living bites.

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Retail market report Q3 2021

Retail capital values over the last three months have grown by 3.2% (the strongest quarterly rate since 2010) with values stabilising across all retail segments.

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Office market report Q3 2021

There are emerging signs of polarisation in the office market between top spec buildings versus those of a lower quality.

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Industrial market report Q3 2021

Industrial investment flows are now not only ahead of the same period in 2020 but also significantly ahead of 2019 levels, driven by the continued strength of investor interest in the logistics sector.

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Retail market report Q2 2021

Retail yields have repriced as average UK retail yields are now 6.8% which compares with 5.3% five years ago.

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Office market report Q2 2021

Financial service companies are seeking out the best model for hybrid working, with 79% of financial service firms surveyed by CBI/PWC in Q2 2021 reassessing their workspace needs and 82% are planning on implanting hybrid ways of working.

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Industrial market report Q2 2021

Investment volumes in the industrial sector over last 12 months increase by 75% as investment levels in the sector have soared.

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UK retail market review Q4 2020

Internet sales are 56% higher than they were in February 2020. Non-food store sales are 27% lower than at the start of the pandemic however, despite this, traditional retailers are continuing to grow their online presence and shrink their bricks and mortar portfolios.

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UK office market review Q4 2020

UK office market more resilient than expected with declines in values less severe than commentators had predicted.

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UK industrial market review Q4 2020

Demand for industrial and warehouse space is driven by the economic performance of the retail, logistics and manufacturing sectors.

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UK retail market review Q3 2020

2020 has been a difficult year for bricks and mortar retail. It is a commonly repeated aphorism but nonetheless true that the pandemic together with Lockdown 1.0 and 2.0 have crammed five or more years of anticipated changes in markets into the last nine months.

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UK industrial market review Q3 2020

The drivers of demand for industrial real estate will continue to evolve.