UK & London rental market update Spring 2024
Demand in the UK rental market hit new highs in 2022 and early 2023. It is now moderating, but is still higher than pre-pandemic averages.
Highlights
- Rental demand easing from record highs, and supply starting to rise
- Rental growth expected again this year, but at a lower rate than 2022 and 2023
- Cluttons forecasts +2.5% rental growth in prime London this year
Year | UK House Prices | Prime London Prices | Prime London Rents |
---|---|---|---|
2023 | -2.3% | -1.1% | +4.4% |
2024 | +1.0% | +0.0% | +2.5% |
2025 | +4.0% | +3.5% | +3.0% |
UK rental market
Demand in the UK rental market hit new highs in 2022 and early 2023, and is now moderating, but is still higher than pre-pandemic averages. Supply of rental properties, which has been very constrained, is beginning to loosen slightly – although the overall lack of supply remains a key factor in the market. However, the supply/demand imbalance is beginning to narrow, and this means that the very strong rental growth registered in recent years will not be continued. Affordability is also playing a part in slowing rental growth, with more evidence that rental properties have hit their rent ceiling. As wage growth slows into 2024, affordability concerns will continue to put downward pressure on rental growth.
New data from Zoopla shows that the number of rental properties where the asking rent is being cut by 5% or more has risen to the highest level in at least five years.
The official rental data from the ONS, which includes new lets agreed as well as continued tenancies, shows how rental growth is now plateauing, rather than continuing to climb.
When it comes to new lets being agreed, the latest data from Zoopla shows that rental increases are still in double digits in most regions, but this still marks a slowdown from a year ago, and these rental rises will slow further during 2024.
London & Prime London rental market
Just as rental growth is easing across the UK market, so too it is slowing across the London and prime London markets. Official data signals that rental growth peaked at 6.9% in November, falling to 6.8% in December in the London market.
In prime London, rental growth peaked in September 2022, and the annual rate of growth has been easing since then, to 4.4% in Q4 2023. On a monthly basis, prime rents fell in December, the first monthly decline since March 2021 when the central London rental market slumped during consecutive lockdowns. For context however, average prime London rents are 17% higher than they were at the start of the pandemic (March 2020).
More detailed data shows that smaller flats are registering higher rental growth than houses, reflecting the larger demand pools for properties with lower headline rents. It may also be a reflection of rising supply in houses – especially where potential vendors are looking to rent out their property while they wait for the sales market to pick up momentum. Agents report an increasing trend of vendors looking to value their property for sale and rental. As the sales market recovers this year and next, some of these properties may again leave the rental market.
As outlined in our forecasts, rents will continue to rise in the prime London market this year, but at a more modest rate than the last two years.
The information provided in this report is the sole property of Cluttons LLP and provides basic information and not legal advice. It must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Cluttons LLP. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. Cluttons LLP does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.
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Much of the commentary around London property in the pandemic has suggested that increased working from home and a desire for more space – particularly gardens – could really reshape the market as people and businesses abandon the city.UK development overview Q3 2020
We saw last quarter that residential development activity quickly recovered to pre-pandemic levels once sites were able to open up again.Forecasts & outlook Q3 2020
Experian’s latest house price forecasts for Cluttons are shown in the table below, based on their central economic scenario of a ‘delayed V-shape’, which sees UK GDP recover to pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2022.Prime Central London Q3 2020
The Cluttons Prime Central London Index, shown in Figure 1, reported that sales values in PCL were 8.4% lower in Q3 2020 than a year earlier, the seventeenth consecutive quarter of annual price falls.UK economic outlook Q3 2020
The economic data reported since our last update appears to have finished off any hopes of a ‘V-shaped’ recovery.UK rental review Q3 2020
The national lettings market continued its post-pandemic recovery in Q3, apart from in London where high supply and low demand continued to put downward pressure on rents.Wider South East Q3 2020
tracking the national average for several years, whereas London has seen more volatility, according to the Nationwide indices.Property of the month: peek inside this five storey riverfront house for sale in Rotherhithe for £1.75m
Join us as we peek inside a charming riverfront home in Rotherhithe Village, with extensive outside spaces and inimitable views of the Thames and some of London’s most famous landmarks.Bankside buzz is drawing in investors
Bankside has it all – a central location, growing transport links, a lively cultural scene and a burgeoning reputation as a business hub, making it a safe bet when investing in property.Royal-tea: tour Queen Elizabeth’s 1949 Maltese home from the comfort of your couch
Cluttons’ Maltese associate partner, Dhalia, has collaborated with Heritage Malta to grant exclusive access to some of the country’s most awe-inspiring locations.Forecasts & outlook Q2 2020
PCL values set to bounce back next year but UK recovery delayed until 2022. Will Brexit and potential tax reform throw things off course?Wider South East Q2 2020
Stamp Duty holiday and desire for space see interest rise across wider South East.UK rental review Q2 2020
Rental market bounces back but outlook is mixed as increases in remote working and studying could limit demand in some sectors.Greater London sales & rental review Q2 2020
London’s rental market set to struggle while buyer demand remains robust despite stretched affordability – and is given further boost by Stamp Duty holiday.Prime Central London Q2 2020
Rental and sales values dip across all Prime Central London areas but activity continues where buyer and seller expectations are aligned.London development Q2 2020
Sales and construction hit by pandemic in Q2 but latest completions data is more positive.UK economic outlook Q2 2020
Slow initial recovery and scale of government support suggest difficult time ahead for economy.UK development overview Q2 2020
Housebuilding sites reopen and developers get boost from increased planning flexibility.UK sales review Q2 2020
Early indicators suggest post-lockdown surge for sales market, but how long can it be sustained?Prime Central London review Q1 2020
Initial research suggests activity in Prime Central London (PCL) will be particularly affected by COVID-19, but discretionary buyers and sellers may help the market recover quicker than other parts of the UK.Residential London review Q1 2020
As COVID-19 stalls sustained price growth in Greater London, we review recent data indicating already decelerating growth in high-value locations.UK residential forecast Q1 2020
The extent and duration of the health and economic crises caused by COVID-19 are still unknown, casting a shadow over the economy.UK Home Counties review Q1 2020
Sales market sees values across all counties close to flat over the past year, with activity slightly down overall.London residential development Q1 2020
The pandemic introduces additional risks to the Central London new build market, on top of its general impact.UK residential development review Q1 2020
As many sites’ shutdown at the start of lockdown, new build development is subject to the twin effects of an uncertain economy and the physical disruption.UK rental review Q1 2020
As new landlord instructions and rent expectation figures drop to their lowest ever levels, how will rents be impacted later in the year?UK economic outlook Q1 2020
Initial data measuring the economy post-shutdown suggested a large impact. But as the Coronavirus pandemic continues, the Government’s unprecedented response gives hope that that the outcome will be better than initially expected.UK residential sales review Q1 2020
At the end of 2019, the UK’s housing markets were starting to emerge from a long period of ‘wait and see’. By January, UK sales expectations were the highest they’d been since the end of 2015. But before the quarter ended, COVID-19 brought transactions levels to an immediate halt. Here, we assess the potential impact on housing throughout the rest of the year.New permitted development rights for homeowners to build upwards
Changes in permitted development rights announced by the government will allow upward extension on purpose-built residential buildings to create new homes without the need for planning permission.Cluttons welcomes Ofcom’s plans to accelerate fibre rollout
Charles Thomas, head of fibre networks at Cluttons, the property consultancy and market leading adviser to the largest mobile operators and fixed-line providers, said:Cluttons hires new head of portfolio and lettings management
Cluttons has hired Eve Larard-Tansley has head of portfolio and lettings management.Cluttons hires development and planning head
Cluttons has hired Steve Cooper as head of development and planning with a remit to grow this area of expertise as part of the business’s strategic plan.Victoria Martin proves resi is relevant at EG’s Future Female Leaders
Twelve women who work across property joined forces with EG and Ginger Public Speaking as part of the Future Female Leaders programme.Cluttons expands its property management team with new hire
Cluttons, the property consultancy, has appointed Claire Collins as head of block management, further strengthening its London-based property management team.Residential market outlook, September 2019
Price corrections leading to an increase in buyer enquiries.Residential market outlook June 2019
Brexit continues to dominate the headlines. Resilient buyers sought to close deals across the capital before the 29 March deadline, others are watching and waiting for a clarity and certainty that, despite the extension, remains elusive.Cluttons market leaders in unique homes
The award-winning team at Cluttons explains why they are market leaders in finding the right buyer for spaces with a story to tell.London residential market outlook winter 2018/19
Cluttons has released its Winter 2018/19 Residential Market Outlook report.Autumn budget 2018
The Chancellor unveiled the 2018 Autumn Budget on 29 October, the last before Britain officially leaves the EU in March next year. In our response document, we present our view on some of the key announcements.London residential market bulletin summer 2018