UK & London sales market update Autumn 2023

Kensington property in winter

Average house prices continue their downward trajectory, with values falling 5.3% in the year to September.

Our quarterly update examines the latest trends in the UK, London, and prime London sales markets. Key highlights:

  • UK and London house prices continue to fall
  • Average values remain higher than pre-pandemic levels
  • There will be continued downward pressure on prices amid rising stock levels and pressure on buyers’ budgets due to increased interest rates

UK market

Average UK house prices were down 5.3% on the year in September, according to Nationwide’s index. For the average priced home, this equates to a fall of £14,000, taking the average value to £257,808. This is still higher than the average home value at the start of the pandemic, which was around £220,000.  

Prices are falling in most areas of the UK, as shown in the map below. Average prices in the North West are down by 3.5% on the year, while in London they are down by 3.8%.

Activity levels are also muted, with mortgage approvals in August falling to the lowest level since the end of last year when activity stalled in the wake of the mini-budget. The Bank of England’s net balance monitor of mortgage lending fell from +55% in Q2 to -55%. Any positive figure indicates that lending is rising, while a negative figure signals a fall.

Yet early indicators of activity from property portals show that buyer interest started to rise again during September, with Zoopla reporting a 12% rise in buyer enquiries during the month. Even so, overall sales volumes will be muted this year, especially where price expectations between sellers and buyers do not meet. There are increasing numbers of properties where asking prices have been discounted, according to Zoopla, primarily in London and the South East, where sellers are reducing their prices by an average of 4.8%.  

Cluttons residential update Autumn 2023 - Annual change in UK house prices

Cluttons residential update Autumn 2023 - Annual change in prices year to September 2023

London & Prime London market

The rate of price declines in Greater London eased in September, with values down 3.8% on the year, compared to a 4.3% fall in August. Yet values in the capital are set to recede further, as higher mortgage rates put pressure on buyers’ budgets. Stock levels in London are also starting to rise modestly, which will further tip the scales towards buyers in current market conditions.

Cluttons residential update Autumn 2023 - Annual change in prices

Property prices are also falling in the prime London market, albeit by a smaller margin. Average prime London values were down 2.1% on the year at the end of September, with a smaller 1.2% decline in prime central London.

Cluttons residential update Autumn 2023 - Annual change in Prime London prices

Prime residential property in the capital did not rise in value at the same rate as the wider UK market during Covid, and is now more protected against larger falls in pricing. The prime market also has a global appeal, with the weakness of the pound making UK properties attractive to international buyers and investors. While more expensive mortgages are a consideration for many buyers in the prime and wider UK markets, there is also a more significant proportion of cash buyers in the prime markets, meaning that recent rate rises will not have such an impact. However, buyers are conscious that values have recalibrated since the market peak in 2015. For example, average prices for houses in prime central London are down by 12% since 2015, and flats are down by 18%.

Cluttons residential update Autumn 2023 - Annual change in prime London prices

Outlook

  YearUK House PricesPrime London PricesPrime London Rents
2023-8.0%-4.0%+5.0%
2024-2.0%+0.5%+3.5%
2025+4.5%+3.0%+3.0%
Cluttons
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Gráinne Gilmore

Director of research and insights

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Gráinne Gilmore, director of research & insights, Cluttons
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James Hyman

Partner, residential investment

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James Hyman, head of residential agency, Cluttons
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Einar Roberts

Partner, residential consultancy

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Einar Roberts
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Neil Duffy

Partner, residential valuations

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T +44 (0) 7941 271 822
Neil Duffy

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The information provided in this report is the sole property of Cluttons LLP and provides basic information and not legal advice. It must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Cluttons LLP. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. Cluttons LLP does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.

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Research

UK economic outlook Q1 2020

Initial data measuring the economy post-shutdown suggested a large impact. But as the Coronavirus pandemic continues, the Government’s unprecedented response gives hope that that the outcome will be better than initially expected.
UK residential sales review Q1 2020
Research

UK residential sales review Q1 2020

At the end of 2019, the UK’s housing markets were starting to emerge from a long period of ‘wait and see’. By January, UK sales expectations were the highest they’d been since the end of 2015. But before the quarter ended, COVID-19 brought transactions levels to an immediate halt. Here, we assess the potential impact on housing throughout the rest of the year.
Residential market outlook, September 2019
Research

Residential market outlook, September 2019

Price corrections leading to an increase in buyer enquiries.
Residential market outlook June 2019
Research

Residential market outlook June 2019

Brexit continues to dominate the headlines. Resilient buyers sought to close deals across the capital before the 29 March deadline, others are watching and waiting for a clarity and certainty that, despite the extension, remains elusive.
London residential market outlook winter 2018/19
Research

London residential market outlook winter 2018/19

Cluttons has released its Winter 2018/19 Residential Market Outlook report.
Autumn budget 2018
Research

Autumn budget 2018

The Chancellor unveiled the 2018 Autumn Budget on 29 October, the last before Britain officially leaves the EU in March next year. In our response document, we present our view on some of the key announcements.
London residential market bulletin summer 2018
Research

London residential market bulletin summer 2018